Crude Oil Desk

Crude Oil Intelligence

Single-screen view for crude oil traders: live futures, EIA fundamentals, spread/crack/tanker dynamics, and floating storage estimated from AIS data at US Gulf, Rotterdam, and Singapore.

Global Oil Flows

Live data at Hormuz · static elsewhere

Major seaborne crude (orange) and LNG (violet) corridors. Chokepoints in red are actively disrupted; amber are watch-list.

Strait of Hormuz

LIVE

10 vessels·0T/ 0L

Persian Gulf exit. 24-mile-wide pinch point between Iran and Oman. About one-fifth of global oil and a quarter of LNG transits daily.

Strait of Malacca

~30% of seaborne crude

Persian Gulf → China bottleneck. 1.7-mile wide at narrowest. Singapore bunkering on south flank.

Suez Canal

~12% of seaborne trade

Mediterranean ↔ Red Sea. Houthi attacks have rerouted ~12% of tanker traffic via Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days.

Bab el-Mandeb

Suez approach

Red Sea southern gate. Active Houthi missile/drone attacks. Risk premium baked into Brent.

Bosphorus

~3% of global oil

Russian crude exit from Black Sea. G7 price cap monitoring point. Heavy regulatory scrutiny.

Panama Canal

LNG / LPG corridor

Drought has cut transit slots ~40% since 2024. Major bottleneck for US Gulf → Asia LNG and LPG.

Crude oilLNG·Active disruptionWatch

Live

WTI$83.12▼ 0.18%

Brent$88.88▼ 0.11%

NG$2.786▼ 0.64%

OVX52.3EXTREME▼ 4.82%

Crude Bull/Bear Score

6 inputs · live

A snapshot of current crude fundamentals (spread, term structure, inventories, tanker tape) — distinct from the event-driven Crude Signals feed below, which only fires on vessel anomalies. The two can point different ways: steady-state bullish fundamentals with no fresh port anomaly is normal.

+2/ 10

BULLISH

-10 Bear0 Neutral+10 Bull

Signal breakdown

Brent–WTI Spread$5.76

Elevated risk premium+1.5

Spread Trendcompressing

Risk easing-1

Futures Curve▼ Backwardation -8.81%

Tight supply signal+2

EIA Inventory+17.4M bbl WoW

Build — bearish-2

Geopolitical Tension4/10

Low — neutral+0.5

Tanker Index+3.62% today

Tankers up — bullish+1

Composite of 6 signals: spread level, spread trend, futures curve, EIA inventories, geopolitical tension, tanker stocks. Score updates each page load.

Floating Storage

AIS-derived · live energy ports

Anchored tankers at major energy hubs. Laden at anchor = classic floating storage (bearish crude). Ballast at anchor = idle capacity (freight-rate signal).

Anchored tankers

across 4 ports

Laden at anchor

floating storage proxy

Crude tankers tracked

vessel class: tanker

LNG carriers tracked

vessel class: lng

Port	Tankers	LNG	Anchored	Laden	Ballast
Singapore	0	0	0	0	0
Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0
Houston	0	0	0	0	0
Sabine Pass	0	0	0	0	0

Energy Fundamentals

EIA weekly · spreads calculated live

US Crude Stocks

424,410k

bbls

+17.4M

BUILD

US commercial crude stocks — build = bearish, draw = bullish

Cushing Stocks

22,566k

bbls

+1.6M

BUILD

WTI delivery hub — high stocks suppress futures price

Brent-WTI Spread

$5.76

BZ − CL

WIDE

Widening = logistics stress or US supply glut. Normal range $1–$5.

3-2-1 Crack Spread

$56.11

Refinery margin / bbl

STRONG

High = strong product demand, bullish for crude. Low = demand weakness.

$83.12▼ 0.18%

$88.88▼ 0.11%

$2.79▼ 0.64%

$4.16▼ 3.24%

$2.89▼ 8.36%

Refinery Utilization

—

EIA weekly · operable capacity

High utilization = strong product demand pulling crude through refineries — supportive of WTI.

Gasoline Crack

$38.26

RBOB − WTI · $/bbl

Refiner margin on gasoline. Widening cracks pull more crude into refining — bullish demand.

Distillate Crack

$91.80

Heating oil − WTI · $/bbl

Diesel/heating margin — driven by industrial activity and winter heating demand.

Brent–WTI Spread

180d · widening = supply risk premium

Current

$5.76

90d avg

$4.39

90d range

$1.79 – $8.5

Normal $0–3 Elevated $3–5 High $5–8 Extreme $8+

3-2-1 Crack Spread

180d · refinery margin proxy

Current

$56.11/bbl

90d avg

$57.49

90d range

$43.47 – $72.22

Very strong — refiners pulling crude hard

Below $10 — bearish demand $10–20 — normal Above $20 — strong demand

Tanker Equity Index

FRO 40% · DHT 25% · INSW 20% · TNK 15%

Composite of the four most-traded crude tanker equities. Surges = market pricing in disruption or rate spike.

Index now

148.6

vs 90d ago

+7.4%

FRO 40%

DHT 25%

INSW 20%

TNK 15%

Base 100 = 90 days ago · White line = weighted composite · Colored lines = individual stocks

Crude Signals

last 30 days · 6 signals

All crude signals →

BULLISH●○○ Single triggerHouston

8d ago

Houston Congestion Spike: Bullish energy

Houston shows Congestion score 85 is 2σ above same-hour baseline (avg 52). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bullish read on FLEX (currently $126.71, +11.9% 5d). Note: the asset has already moved in this direction over the past week, so part of the move may be priced in.

Triggered By

▲

Congestion score 85 is 2σ above same-hour baseline (avg 52)

Trade Idea

Long FLEX (currently $126.71, +11.9% 5d) while congestion holds above 85 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.

Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (8d ago) — check the live tape before acting.

Entry

Congestion holds above 85 for 2+ consecutive polls

Invalidation

congestionScore reverts toward baseline (52) within 48h, or FLEX falls below $122.91

Horizon

3-7 days

Affected Assets

FLEX

—

GLNG

—

$83.12

▼ 0.18%

$2.79

▼ 0.64%

$2.89

▼ 8.36%

USO

—

UNG

—

XLE

—

⚠ Much of the move may already be priced in. An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.

Systematic signal · rule-based engine

Track record →View detail →

BEARISH●○○ Single triggerSingapore

9d ago

Singapore Vessel Drop: Bearish energy

Singapore shows Vessel count 16 is 1.7σ below same-hour baseline (avg 40). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $91.315, -0.7% 5d).

Triggered By

▼

Vessel count 16 is 1.7σ below same-hour baseline (avg 40)

Trade Idea

Short CL (currently $91.315, -0.7% 5d) while vessel count holds below 16 into the next poll; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.

Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (9d ago) — check the live tape before acting.

Entry

Vessel count holds below 16 into the next poll

Invalidation

vesselCount reverts toward baseline (40) within 48h, or CL rises above $94.05

Horizon

3-7 days

Affected Assets

$83.12

▼ 0.18%

$2.79

▼ 0.64%

⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.

Systematic signal · rule-based engine

Track record →View detail →

BULLISH●○○ Single triggerHouston

10d ago

Houston Congestion Spike: Bullish energy

Houston shows Congestion score 85 is 1.8σ above same-hour baseline (avg 51). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bullish read on FLEX (currently $113.75, -4% 5d).

Triggered By

▲

Congestion score 85 is 1.8σ above same-hour baseline (avg 51)

Trade Idea

Long FLEX (currently $113.75, -4% 5d) while congestion holds above 85 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.

Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (10d ago) — check the live tape before acting.

Entry

Congestion holds above 85 for 2+ consecutive polls

Invalidation

congestionScore reverts toward baseline (51) within 48h, or FLEX falls below $110.34

Horizon

3-7 days

Affected Assets

FLEX

—

GLNG

—

$83.12

▼ 0.18%

$2.79

▼ 0.64%

$2.89

▼ 8.36%

USO

—

UNG

—

XLE

—

⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.

Systematic signal · rule-based engine

Track record →View detail →

BULLISH●○○ Single triggerSingapore

11d ago

Singapore Congestion Spike: Bullish energy

Singapore shows Congestion score 76 is 2.7σ above same-hour baseline (avg 44). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bullish read on FLEX (currently $113.75, -4% 5d).

Triggered By

▲

Congestion score 76 is 2.7σ above same-hour baseline (avg 44)

Trade Idea

Long FLEX (currently $113.75, -4% 5d) while congestion holds above 76 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.

Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (11d ago) — check the live tape before acting.

Entry

Congestion holds above 76 for 2+ consecutive polls

Invalidation

congestionScore reverts toward baseline (44) within 48h, or FLEX falls below $110.34

Horizon

3-7 days

Affected Assets

FLEX

—

GLNG

—

$83.12

▼ 0.18%

$2.79

▼ 0.64%

⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.

Systematic signal · rule-based engine

Track record →View detail →

BEARISH●○○ Single triggerHouston

11d ago

Houston Vessel Drop: Bearish energy

Houston shows Vessel count 33 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 88). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $91.3, +0.6% 5d).

Triggered By

▼

Vessel count 33 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 88)

Trade Idea

Short CL (currently $91.3, +0.6% 5d) while vessel count holds below 33 into the next poll; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.

Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (11d ago) — check the live tape before acting.

Entry

Vessel count holds below 33 into the next poll

Invalidation

vesselCount reverts toward baseline (88) within 48h, or CL rises above $94.04

Horizon

3-7 days

Affected Assets

$83.12

▼ 0.18%

$2.79

▼ 0.64%

$2.89

▼ 8.36%

USO

—

UNG

—

XLE

—

⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.

Systematic signal · rule-based engine

Track record →View detail →

BEARISH●○○ Single triggerSingapore

12d ago

Singapore Congestion Relief: Bearish energy

Singapore shows Congestion score 25 is 2σ below same-hour baseline (avg 53). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $91.33, +0.6% 5d).

Triggered By

▼

Congestion score 25 is 2σ below same-hour baseline (avg 53)

Trade Idea

Short CL (currently $91.33, +0.6% 5d) while congestion holds below 25 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.

Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (12d ago) — check the live tape before acting.

Entry

Congestion holds below 25 for 2+ consecutive polls

Invalidation

congestionScore reverts toward baseline (53) within 48h, or CL rises above $94.07

Horizon

3-7 days

Affected Assets

$83.12

▼ 0.18%

⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.

Systematic signal · rule-based engine

Track record →View detail →

Drill deeper

Hormuz transit + sanctions risk · per-port tanker breakdowns

Hormuz →Track record →

Updates hourly · AIS-derived data · Not financial advice