Crude Oil Intelligence
Single-screen view for crude oil traders: live futures, EIA fundamentals, spread/crack/tanker dynamics, and floating storage estimated from AIS data at US Gulf, Rotterdam, and Singapore.
Global Oil Flows
Live data at Hormuz · static elsewhereMajor seaborne crude (orange) and LNG (violet) corridors. Chokepoints in red are actively disrupted; amber are watch-list.
Strait of Hormuz
LIVEPersian Gulf exit. 24-mile-wide pinch point between Iran and Oman. About one-fifth of global oil and a quarter of LNG transits daily.
Strait of Malacca
~30% of seaborne crude
Persian Gulf → China bottleneck. 1.7-mile wide at narrowest. Singapore bunkering on south flank.
Suez Canal
~12% of seaborne trade
Mediterranean ↔ Red Sea. Houthi attacks have rerouted ~12% of tanker traffic via Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days.
Bab el-Mandeb
Suez approach
Red Sea southern gate. Active Houthi missile/drone attacks. Risk premium baked into Brent.
Bosphorus
~3% of global oil
Russian crude exit from Black Sea. G7 price cap monitoring point. Heavy regulatory scrutiny.
Panama Canal
LNG / LPG corridor
Drought has cut transit slots ~40% since 2024. Major bottleneck for US Gulf → Asia LNG and LPG.
Crude Bull/Bear Score
6 inputs · liveA snapshot of current crude fundamentals (spread, term structure, inventories, tanker tape) — distinct from the event-driven Crude Signals feed below, which only fires on vessel anomalies. The two can point different ways: steady-state bullish fundamentals with no fresh port anomaly is normal.
Signal breakdown
Composite of 6 signals: spread level, spread trend, futures curve, EIA inventories, geopolitical tension, tanker stocks. Score updates each page load.
Floating Storage
AIS-derived · live energy portsAnchored tankers at major energy hubs. Laden at anchor = classic floating storage (bearish crude). Ballast at anchor = idle capacity (freight-rate signal).
9
Anchored tankers
across 4 ports
3
Laden at anchor
floating storage proxy
11
Crude tankers tracked
vessel class: tanker
0
LNG carriers tracked
vessel class: lng
| Port | Tankers | LNG | Anchored | Laden | Ballast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rotterdam | 9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Houston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sabine Pass | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Energy Fundamentals
EIA weekly · spreads calculated liveUS Crude Stocks
426,398k
bbls
+3.0M
BUILD
US commercial crude stocks — build = bearish, draw = bullish
Cushing Stocks
23,748k
bbls
+2.3M
BUILD
WTI delivery hub — high stocks suppress futures price
Brent-WTI Spread
$5.03
BZ − CL
Widening = logistics stress or US supply glut. Normal range $1–$5.
3-2-1 Crack Spread
$59.32
Refinery margin / bbl
High = strong product demand, bullish for crude. Low = demand weakness.
Refinery Utilization
—
EIA weekly · operable capacity
High utilization = strong product demand pulling crude through refineries — supportive of WTI.
Gasoline Crack
$41.49
RBOB − WTI · $/bbl
Refiner margin on gasoline. Widening cracks pull more crude into refining — bullish demand.
Distillate Crack
$94.99
Heating oil − WTI · $/bbl
Diesel/heating margin — driven by industrial activity and winter heating demand.
Brent–WTI Spread
180d · widening = supply risk premium
Current
$5.03
90d avg
$5.28
90d range
$2.4 – $11.99
3-2-1 Crack Spread
180d · refinery margin proxy
Current
$59.31/bbl
90d avg
$65.47
90d range
$56.88 – $75.31
Very strong — refiners pulling crude hard
Tanker Equity Index
FRO 40% · DHT 25% · INSW 20% · TNK 15%Composite of the four most-traded crude tanker equities. Surges = market pricing in disruption or rate spike.
Index now
181.33
vs 90d ago
+34.2%
Base 100 = 90 days ago · White line = weighted composite · Colored lines = individual stocks
Crude Signals
last 30 days · 6 signals18h ago
Houston Congestion Relief: Bearish energy
Houston shows Congestion score 44 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 60). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $86.06, -1.6% 5d).
Triggered By
Congestion score 44 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 60)
Trade Idea
Short CL (currently $86.06, -1.6% 5d) while congestion holds below 44 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (18h ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Congestion holds below 44 for 2+ consecutive polls
Invalidation
congestionScore reverts toward baseline (60) within 48h, or CL rises above $88.64
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
CL
$92.41
▼ 2.33%
NG
$3.23
▼ 2.18%
RB
$3.19
▼ 10.57%
USO
—
UNG
—
XLE
—
⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
2d ago
Houston Congestion Spike: Bullish energy
Houston shows Congestion score 79 is 1.8σ above same-hour baseline (avg 57). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bullish read on FLEX (currently $112.4, +4.2% 5d). Note: the asset has already moved in this direction over the past week, so part of the move may be priced in.
Triggered By
Congestion score 79 is 1.8σ above same-hour baseline (avg 57)
Trade Idea
Long FLEX (currently $112.4, +4.2% 5d) while congestion holds above 79 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (2d ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Congestion holds above 79 for 2+ consecutive polls
Invalidation
congestionScore reverts toward baseline (57) within 48h, or FLEX falls below $109.03
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
FLEX
—
GLNG
—
CL
$92.41
▼ 2.33%
NG
$3.23
▼ 2.18%
RB
$3.19
▼ 10.57%
USO
—
UNG
—
XLE
—
⚠ Much of the move may already be priced in. An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
3d ago
Houston Congestion Relief: Bearish energy
Houston shows Congestion score 31 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 54). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $86.705, -0.3% 5d).
Triggered By
Congestion score 31 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 54)
Trade Idea
Short CL (currently $86.705, -0.3% 5d) while congestion holds below 31 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (3d ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Congestion holds below 31 for 2+ consecutive polls
Invalidation
congestionScore reverts toward baseline (54) within 48h, or CL rises above $89.31
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
CL
$92.41
▼ 2.33%
NG
$3.23
▼ 2.18%
RB
$3.19
▼ 10.57%
USO
—
UNG
—
XLE
—
⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
3d ago
Singapore Congestion Spike: Bullish energy
Singapore shows Congestion score 100 is 4.6σ above same-hour baseline (avg 53). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bullish read on FLEX (currently $114.45, +5.7% 5d). Note: the asset has already moved in this direction over the past week, so part of the move may be priced in.
Triggered By
Congestion score 100 is 4.6σ above same-hour baseline (avg 53)
Trade Idea
Long FLEX (currently $114.45, +5.7% 5d) while congestion holds above 100 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (3d ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Congestion holds above 100 for 2+ consecutive polls
Invalidation
congestionScore reverts toward baseline (53) within 48h, or FLEX falls below $111.02
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
FLEX
—
GLNG
—
CL
$92.41
▼ 2.33%
NG
$3.23
▼ 2.18%
⚠ Much of the move may already be priced in. An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
5d ago
Singapore Vessel Drop: Bearish energy
Singapore shows Vessel count 25 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 68). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $86.26, -1.9% 5d).
Triggered By
Vessel count 25 is 1.8σ below same-hour baseline (avg 68)
Trade Idea
Short CL (currently $86.26, -1.9% 5d) while vessel count holds below 25 into the next poll; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (5d ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Vessel count holds below 25 into the next poll
Invalidation
vesselCount reverts toward baseline (68) within 48h, or CL rises above $88.85
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
CL
$92.41
▼ 2.33%
NG
$3.23
▼ 2.18%
⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
5d ago
Houston Congestion Relief: Bearish energy
Houston shows Congestion score 29 is 2σ below same-hour baseline (avg 55). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $86.09, -2% 5d).
Triggered By
Congestion score 29 is 2σ below same-hour baseline (avg 55)
Trade Idea
Short CL (currently $86.09, -2% 5d) while congestion holds below 29 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (5d ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Congestion holds below 29 for 2+ consecutive polls
Invalidation
congestionScore reverts toward baseline (55) within 48h, or CL rises above $88.67
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
CL
$92.41
▼ 2.33%
NG
$3.23
▼ 2.18%
RB
$3.19
▼ 10.57%
USO
—
UNG
—
XLE
—
⚠ An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
Drill deeper
Hormuz transit + sanctions risk · per-port tanker breakdowns
Updates hourly · AIS-derived data · Not financial advice