Strait of Hormuz
Oil / LNG ChokepointPersian Gulf · Between Iran and Oman · ~20% of global oil
Updated 01:03 PM UTC
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil chokepoint. Approximately 20% of global petroleum and 25% of the world's LNG transits this 33-mile-wide passage daily. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, and Kuwait all depend on Hormuz for oil exports.
Transit Activity
VesselAPI · 1h ago · ~50nmVessels within the Hormuz transit zone (~50nm). Terrestrial coverage here is partial (VesselAPI) — counts only, no vessel-class split.
45
Vessels in zone
terrestrial · partial coverage
33
Anchored / slow
73% of vessels seen
7-day range: 14–50 vessels · current 45
Crude Bull/Bear Score
6 signals · liveSignal breakdown
Composite of 6 signals: spread level, spread trend, futures curve, EIA inventories, geopolitical tension, tanker stocks. Score updates each page load.
Brent–WTI Spread
Widening = market pricing in Hormuz risk. Normal range $2–4.
EIA Crude Stocks
+3.0M
barrels WoW
426.4B bbl total
Small build — neutral
Weekly US crude stock change ex-SPR. Draws tighten global supply.
Cushing Stocks
23.7M
barrels
+2.3M WoW
Cushing, OK is the WTI delivery hub. Low stocks support WTI prices.
US Crude Exports
EIA data unavailable
High US exports drain domestic stocks. Strong export demand = bullish WTI.
Refinery Utilization
EIA data unavailable
High utilization pulls crude into refineries, draining stocks.
US Gasoline Stocks
206.0M
barrels
-1.7M WoW
Low gasoline stocks force refiners to run harder → crude demand up.
US Distillate Stocks
107.4M
barrels
-0.4M WoW
Diesel/heating oil. Low distillate = industrial demand strong → bullish crude.
Fujairah Storage
AIS coverage limited at Fujairah
Eastern mouth of Hormuz. High anchored count = floating storage buildup.
M1–M2 Spread
+3.7
$/bbl · M1 vs M2
Strong backwardation — tight supply
Prompt premium. Positive = tight near-term supply.
3-2-1 Crack
$59.32
$/bbl refiner margin
Very strong — refiners pulling crude hard
2 × gasoline + 1 × HO − 3 × WTI. High = crude demand from refiners.
OVX Crude Vol
55.1
implied vol index
+1.2% today
Extreme fear — wait for clarity
CBOE crude oil vol index. High OVX = uncertainty, reduce position size.
CNH/USD
0.1490
¥ per USD (inverted)
-0.00% today
Stable
China imports ~15M bbl/day. Stronger Yuan = more purchasing power.
Risk Assessment
Systematic · hourlyBrent-WTI spread sits at $5.03 (slight premium — mild risk sentiment), stable over 5 days. Fujairah shows 0 anchored vessels (0% of 0) — normal storage levels. Overall Hormuz risk is assessed LOW (tension 4/10).
Watch factors
Elevated Brent-WTI spread ($5.03) — supply-risk premium
8 relevant Hormuz/Iran/Persian Gulf headline(s) in the feed
Strait of Hormuz transit conditions
Geopolitical Sentiment
Live news · rule-scored8 headline(s) relevant to Hormuz/Iran/Persian Gulf were retrieved — see linked headlines for detail.
Source headlines
Brent–WTI Spread History
90 days · dailyCurrent
$5.03
90d avg
$5.28
90d range
$2.4 – $11.99
Spread above $5 signals market pricing in Persian Gulf supply risk. Toggle DXY to see dollar strength correlation — stronger USD typically compresses the spread.
HarborSignal Tanker Index
90 days · daily · base 100Index now
282.54
vs 90d ago
+34.5%
Base 100 = 90 days ago · White line = weighted composite · Colored lines = individual stocks
Weighted composite of FRO, DHT, INSW, TNK normalized to 100 at start of period. Rising index = market pricing in tanker demand surge.
3-2-1 Crack Spread History
90 days · dailyCurrent
$59.31/bbl
90d avg
$65.47
90d range
$56.88 – $75.31
Very strong — refiners pulling crude hard
Refiner margin = 2 barrels gasoline + 1 barrel heating oil − 3 barrels WTI. When margins are strong, refiners compete for crude, tightening supply. Weak margins lead to run cuts.
Managed Money Positioning (COT)
CFTC · weeklyCFTC Commitment of Traders — managed money (hedge funds + CTAs) net position in WTI crude futures. Extreme long positioning is a contrarian bearish signal due to crowding risk. Extreme short = potential short squeeze.
WTI Futures Curve
▼ BACKWARDATIONForward months cheaper than spot — tight supply signal. Bullish for tanker stocks. Slope: -10.77% M1→M6.
Tanker Stocks — Today
Weighted composite · liveTankers flat — neutral sector sentiment
FRO 40% · DHT 25% · INSW 20% · TNK 15% — weighted by market cap and Hormuz exposure
Live Vessel Map
Live AIS vessel positions via MarineTraffic · Strait of Hormuz / Gulf of Oman
Correlated Assets
Live prices · 5-min cacheTanker Stocks
Largest crude tanker operator — most direct Hormuz equity play
Diversified tanker fleet — strong correlation to Persian Gulf activity
Mid-size tankers — volatile around OPEC and Hormuz escalation news
VLCC operator — very large crude carriers dominate Hormuz traffic
Energy Futures
Hormuz disruption spikes WTI immediately via supply shock fears
Brent is more sensitive to Middle East supply — primary signal
LNG from Qatar transits Hormuz — disruption tightens global LNG
ETFs
Liquid crude proxy for non-futures traders
Broad energy services exposure
Key Risk Factors
Iranian military threats
Iran periodically threatens to close the strait in response to sanctions or regional escalation.
Houthi spillover
Red Sea Houthi attacks have diverted some tanker traffic — further escalation could extend to Hormuz.
US-Iran sanctions pressure
Sanctions enforcement affects how many Iranian barrels transit, altering effective throughput.
OPEC+ output changes
Saudi, UAE, and Kuwaiti export volumes all flow through Hormuz — OPEC cuts reduce traffic.
Floating storage buildups
Tankers anchoring offshore to store crude signal oversupply — a bearish crude signal.
Trading Context
Why Hormuz matters more than other chokepoints: Unlike Panama or Suez, there is no bypass route for Persian Gulf oil. If Hormuz closes, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait lose their primary export pathway — roughly 17–18 million barrels per day with nowhere to go.
Reading the Brent-WTI spread: Brent (international) typically trades at a $2–4 premium to WTI (US domestic). When Hormuz is under threat, Brent spikes faster than WTI — the spread widens. A spread above $5 suggests the market is pricing in supply disruption risk. Above $8 is a significant risk premium.
Fujairah floating storage: Fujairah sits at the eastern mouth of the strait on the Gulf of Oman side. When tankers anchor here rather than transiting, it signals either a demand shock (buyers deferring delivery) or sanctions-related holding. An anchored ratio above 40% is elevated.
How to trade a Hormuz disruption: Long Brent (BZ) and tanker stocks (FRO, INSW, DHT) are the primary plays. LNG-exposed names (GLNG, FLEX) benefit from Qatar LNG disruption. The reaction is typically fast — futures move within hours of credible threat news.
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Systematic analysis · Brent-WTI spread and EIA data are live market signals · Not financial advice · Legal